Will My Winning Streak Continue?

Question:  when i play [Craps] i take 2 come bets with 2x odds ......i play $25 dollar chips….i might maybe take a very ocassional hard way or field bet if i am playing with their money…..i have been keeping records of my won loss record as well as money won lost per session.
am i getting lucky and running hot or does this look about right to you ?
also keep in mind that when i play IF i lose 600 i fold the tent cap the loss.
if i am winning i usally will play until i make 2,000 or just get exhausted which ever comes 1st.
as of now i have 12 online sessions 2 live sessions that look like this.
WON 10
LOST   5
Live + 550….+ 175…...= 2 wins
online…all pluses on the this colum,,,1050…975…460….860…465….1445….1515….527
Online all lost….minus….410….620…500…540…510

do you think i am riding a hot streak or do you think the continuation of such type numbers could be realistic ?
I am under no illussions that i can beat the game or earn a living at it…...on the other hand i am starting to get the feeling i could vist AC like 8 times a year and come away a winner 5 of the 8 times for an overall profit.

Thanks for your question.  My honest answer is that it is impossible to accurately predict how you will do in the future playing Craps based on what has happened in the past.  There is nothing that says that you couldn’t continue winning like you currently have been… but there’s nothing that says that it won’t end, either.  Since the math of the game is not in your favor, it is more likely that you will not continue this streak… but that’s only “more likely” - nothing definite.

That’s probably not the kind of answer you wanted to hear.  Sorry about that.

Do you have a topic or question related to casino gaming that you'd like to see discussed on this blog?  Send me an email at FogOfGambling@gmail.com and let me know!

Insurance and Even Money in Blackjack

Question:  I never take insurance when I play blackjack and the dealer is showing an ace.  But when I have blackjack and the dealer has an ace showing, I always take even money.  I see many people doing the same thing as me, but sometimes people say that even money is just like taking insurance.  Who is right?

The short answer:  Taking even money is the same as taking insurance.

The long answer:  
Imagine that your initial bet was $10.  You get dealt blackjack, but the dealer's up-card is an ace.  Forgetting about "even money" for the moment, let's say that you decide to take full insurance of $5 (the maximum bet for insurance is half of your original blackjack wager).  If the dealer does indeed have blackjack, your original $10 wager will push, and your insurance bet gets paid 2 to 1, for a win of $10.  This is obviously a net win of $10.

If after taking insurance, the dealer does not have blackjack, you will lose your $5 insurance bet, but then get paid 3 to 2 (or 1.5x) your original wager... in this case a win of $15.  After you subtract your losses from the insurance bet, your net win here is also $10.

So no matter what happens, once you take full insurance, your net winnings will equal the amount of your original wager.  This is how the casino can offer you what's known as "even money".  So yes, if you take even money, you are essentially taking insurance.

Do you have a topic or question related to casino gaming that you'd like to see discussed on this blog?  Send me an email at FogOfGambling@gmail.com and let me know!

The Scorecards in Baccarat

Question:  I read that Baccarat is not only one of the best games to play in the casino, but also one of the most simple.  When I went to try it, I found that many people were using scorecards and tracking the results in various ways.  When I saw that, I was too scared to play and walked away.  Can you tell me what's up with those scorecards?

You're right, Baccarat (and all smaller versions of the game) is an easy game to play, and also has a relatively low house edge.  I assume you already understand how the game is played, so I won't discuss that here (although this information may be given in a future article, if requested).  About those scorecards...

Some casinos have provided scorecards to players so that they can keep track of the outcomes of the hands.  Also, some casinos have history boards that display the results of the most recent hands.  These are similar to the history boards that are popular in Roulette.

Players like to keep track of previous hands in different ways.  Most everybody who does this looks for trends by tracking which hand wins - either the Banker or Player.  But many people also like to record the exact values of the Banker/Player hands.  There is no "right way" to keep score, and you can use these scorecards any way you like.

However, keeping track of results, or even counting cards in Baccarat has not yet proved to be of any help when deciding whether to bet on the Banker, Player, or the Tie.  Casinos only offer scorecards to accommodate their superstitious players, or those who believe that past results can predict future results.

Keeping track of the outcomes is a waste of time - you don't have to do it even though everybody else at the table is.  The next time you walk up to a Mini-Baccarat game, don't be intimidated by what other players are doing, or how they are betting.  When it comes to deciding if the Banker or Player will win the next hand, your guess will be as good as theirs.

Do you have a topic or question related to casino gaming that you'd like to see discussed on this blog?  Send me an email at FogOfGambling@gmail.com and let me know!